What if Israel attacks Iran?

Recently Israel's transportation minister was quoted as saying "Attacking Iran, in order to stop its nuclear plans, will be unavoidable. If Iran continues with its program for developing nuclear weapons, we will attack it. The sanctions are ineffective"

Is the threat from Israel realistic or just another political statement by an Israeli politician to ward off the crisis faced by the Prime Minister Ehud Olmert at home. It can be considered real given the fact that in 1981 Israeli warplanes destroyed Iraq's nuclear reactor

Ok then what are the reactors that are in contention for attack by Israel. The fact is that Israel has its eyes on certain key facilities that it deems are important for producing nuclear weapons. The first site is Bushehr located on the Persian Gulf southwest of Isfahan.



This site is not on the top list of Israel's hitlist as this site is intended to be for peaceful purposes (for producing nuclear power of around 1,000 MW). Russia has signed an agreement that the spent fuel will be returned to Russia and not diverted to any other places where it can be used for producing plutonium (used for making weapons)



The second and the most contentious site is Natanz which is complete and Iran is already in the process of enriching Uranium. It is partly being built underground making Iran's intentions a little suspicious in the international arena

What are the possibilities and factors that will determine whether Israel attacks Iran
The biggest hurdle for Israel to attack Iran's nuclear facilities are that the fighter jets which are going to attack the facilities definitely will need a refuelling as the nuclear facilities are very far away from Israel and they also far apart from each other.

Unlike in 1981 where the site of the nuclear reactor was nearer to Israel and the fighter jets returned safely after attacking the site. Moreover all these installations have been protected by advanced air defense systems from Russia and many are underground installations which makes the mission even more difficult to carry out

What will be Iran's response
Unlike in 1981 where Israel destroyed Iraq's nuclear facilities without losing anything, Iran is a completely different situation. They have their own missile program and have a missile that can reach up to London. They can hit Israel with ease and also attack other U.S. bases in the Gulf region.



Moreover Iran has the political leverage to destabilise Iraq using its Shia majority and turn them against the U.S. They can use Hezbollah as a significant weapon next door to Israel on the northern Israeli border


Israel has developed its Arrow ant-ballistic missile program which it claims can neutralise the missile attacks from Iran but the arrow missile system is yet to be tested on the battleground. And everyone knows how miserably the Patriot missile batteries failed during both the gulf war and the war between Israel and Hezbollah


Given these scenarios and the legality of attacks given that Iran's nuclear ambitions are yet to be proven, Israel and U.S. will be diplomatically isolated if they preemptively attack Iran